Archive for the ‘Karya Ilmiah’ Category

The Significance of Loyalty on Consumer Credit Profitability

Tuesday, March 26th, 2013

The Significance of Loyalty on Consumer Credit Profitability

Aditya Galih Prihartono, Ujang Sumarwan, Noer Azam Achsani, . Kirbrandoko

The purpose of this research is to analyze and test the effect of customer loyalty on consumer credit profitability. Loyalty Index Score was developed to determine the level of customers’ loyalty level through 4 main variables; Longevity, Depth, Breadth and Referrals. The effect of  Loyalty Index Score  on profitability was further tested by path analysis to find out the significance direct relationship between loyalty and profitablity and the indirect relationship between the two variable through bucket. The result showed that loyalty has a significant effect on profitability either directly or indirectly. It was concluded that direct loyalty effect on profitability is lower than that of the indirect effect through bucket. The conclusion could be made by analyzing the available data from personal loan customers in one of the biggest multinational bank in indonesia during October 2010 until March 2011.

Keywords:
Loyalty, Consumer Credit, Credit Risk, Profit, Path Analysis

Artikel selangkapnya klik  : 95-248-1-PB

On Comparisson between Ordinary Linear Regression and Geographically Weighted Regression: With Application to Indonesian Poverty Data

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Asep Saefuddin
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences
Bogor Agricultural University. Indonesia
E-mail: asaefuddin@gmail.com

Nur Andi Setiabudi
iCrescent. Jl. Pandawa Raya No. 6, Bumi Indraprasta
Bogor, Indonesia
E-mail: nurandi.mail@gmail.com

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: achsani@yahoo.com or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id

 

Abstract

Ordinary linear regression (OLR) is one of popular techniques in analyzing relationship between response variable and its predictors. It is an analysis that produces global models applied to all observations assuming no correlation among responses. In social studies, such as poverty analysis, response variable might be spatial nonstationarity, i.e. depends on the region or neighborhood. Therefore, of course, OLR model will not comply the assumption of independence. In dealing with the problem, an OLR model has to be calibrated by accommodating spatial variation. Alternatively, geographically weighted regression (GWR) involves geographical weights in estimating the parameters. GWR yields models in each region uniquely, i.e. local model, by setting the weights as a function of distance. The weights are greater as the distance is closer, and then continuously decrease to zero as the distance is farther.

This paper shows an application of GWR in poverty analysis in Java, Indonesia. Performance of GWR and OLR model in describing poverty is compared. The results show that GWR has better performance than OLR does based on residuals, R2, AIC statistics and some formal tests.

Keywords: Global model, geographically weighted regression, local model, spatial analysis

Artikel lengkapnya dapat dibaca dalam bentuk pdf file mb.ipb.ac.id_EJSR_57_2_10

Sales Efficiency of the Indonesian Retail Bond (ORI) and Its Implications on Marketing Strategy

Wednesday, March 2nd, 2011

Susy Liestiowaty
Graduate School of Management and Business, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: susylies@yahoo.com

Ujang Sumarwan
Department of Family and Consumer Sciences and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: sumarwan@mma.ipb.ac.id

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: achsani@yahoo.com and achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id

Nunung Nuryartono
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Business Management
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to assess the efficiency of the Indonesian Government Retail Bond known as ORI (Indonesian Retail Bonds) at every branch of BRI (Bank Rakyat Indonesia, an Indonesian commercial bank) in order to obtain a comprehensive study on marketing strategy of ORI that is applicable for the Bank. The method used to analyze the efficiency is SFA (Stochastic Frontier Analysis) method, using number of marketers and marketing costs (marketing promotion cost plus overhead costs) as inputs, while the output is selling fee income of each branch.

The five branches of BRI, namely: Jakarta Pasar Minggu, Jakarta Hayam Wuruk, Kramat Jakarta, Medan Iskandar Muda and Jayapura become the five most efficient branches in conducting sales of ORI001-005. Those branches have average cost per marketers ranges from Rp.533.750 to Rp.1.036.173 while their ORI sales target ranging from Rp.220.000.000 to Rp.7.921.666.667.

Based on the research results, the effective marketing strategy that can be applied to all branches of BRI is to set the sales target of Rp.1.494.000.000 and marketing cost of Rp.1.036.173 (which consists of marketing/promotion cost and marketers’ overhead cost) in order to obtain a profit of Rp.5.754.736 per-marketer.

Keywords: ORI, Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Marketing Strategy

Artikel selengkapnya dalam format pdf : Klik disini
Sumber: http://www.eurojournals.com

Determinant of Corporate Financial Distress in an Emerging Market Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Indonesian Stock Exchange 2004-2008

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

Koes Pranowo
Graduate School of Management and Business Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
Graduate Program of Management ABFI Institute of Perbanas Jakarta, Indonesia
E-mail: kpranowo@gmail.com (preferred) or koes@sism.co.id

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: achsani@yahoo.com (preferred) or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id

Adler H.Manurung
Graduate School of Management and Business Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
Graduate Program of Management ABFI Institute of Perbanas Jakarta, Indonesia
E-mail: manurung_adler@yahoo.com

Nunung Nuryartono
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: nuryartono@yahoo.com

Abstract
This study empirically examines the dynamics of corporate financial distress of public companies (non financial companies) in Indonesian (IDX) for the period of 2004- 2008. Using panel data regression, we analyze internal and external factors affecting corporate financial distress. To distinguish the status of financial condition, the process of integral corporate financial distress is classified into four steps: good, early impairment,deterioration and cash flow problem companies.

The results show that current ratio (CR), efficiency (Eff), equity (EQ) and dummy variable of the status good financial condition (D3) have positive and significant influences to Debt Service Coverage (DSC) as a proxy of financial distress. On the other hand, leverage (Lev) has a negative and significant relation with DSC. Other variables such as profit, retain earning (RE), good corporate governance (GCG) and macroeconomic factor have no significant impact on the status of corporate financial distress. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that profitable companies should not be a guarantee that the companies can survive to fulfill its liabilities. Liquidity of companies which can be a prominent point can be recognized by evaluating cash flow performance.

Keywords: Debt Service Coverage (DSC), Panel Data, Corporate Financial Distress,Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

Artikel selengkapnya dalam PDF File Klik Disini

Similarity of Economic Structure among Asean+3 Economies: A Multivariate analysis based on Maastricht Treaty Criterion

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mial: achsani@yahoo.com (preferred) or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id

Hari Wijayanto
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences and Mathematics
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: hari@ipb.ac.id

Almufidha Agustyarti
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences and Mathematics
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: aola_sweety@yahoo.com

Dina Lianitasari
Brighten Institute, Jalan Merak No 14 Bogor, Indonesia
E-mail: dina_lianitasari@yahoo.com

Abstract

The success story of the EU in establishing a single market in 1999 have motivated ASEAN region to further integrate their economy towards ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 2020. Theoretically, economic integration can succeed, when there is homogeneity among the member countries. The purpose of this paper is to classify the economy of ASEAN+3 countries based on Maastricht Treaty Criterion using k-means clustering analysis. Then, multivariate statistical analysis using biplot and procrustes will be applied for observing the characteristic differences between two periods, i.e. before the Asian economic crisis (1996-2001) and after the crisis (2002-2006).

The results show that there are still some clusters among ASEAN+3 countries. The advanced countries tend to gather in one cluster, while the developing countries gather in another cluster. Furthermore, the results also suggest that the configurations tend to be stable over time, i.e. in the crisis period and in the period after the crisis. The advanced countries do not have any great movements and therefore they are more stable in compare to the developing countries in the region. As a result, the integration process among ASEAN+3 countries should be handled carefully. Otherwise, the integration will not function well and the benefits of the integration will mainly goes to the more developed countries as warned by Yamazawa.

Keywords: ASEAN+3, economic integration, clustering, biplot, procrustes

Artikel selengkapnya dalam PDF File Klik disini

Sumber: http://www.eurojournals.com/ejss_16_03_08.pdf

The Relationship between Inflation and Real Exchange Rate: Comparative Study between ASEAN+3, the EU and North America

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and International Centre for Applied Finance and Economics,  Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: achsani@yahoo.com (preferred) or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id
Tel. +62-251-8377662; Fax. +62-251-8377896

Arie Jayanthy F A Fauzi
Graduate School of Management and Business, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: ariesangputriraja@yahoo.com
Tel: +62-251-8313813; Fax: +62-251-8318515

Piter Abdullah
Center for Central Banking Research, Bank Indonesia
E-mail: piter@bi.go.id

Abstract

Inflation has always been one of the most important macroeconomic issues. Due to this importance, a study concerning the factors associated with the behavior of inflation needs to be done. This paper will be devoted to analyze the relevance of inflation with the exchange rates. The research will try to compare the response or sensitivity of inflation to the changes in real exchange rates in Asia (ASEAN +3) and compare the result with those
of the EU and North America.

Using explorative statistical analysis and Granger-causality test, we found that there is a strong correlation between the movements of inflation with real exchange rate in most countries to be analyzed. For Asia, there is a significant one-way causal relationship, where the nominal and real exchange rates have a significant impact on the rate of inflation. On the other hand, in the Non-Asian regions, the causal relationship seems to be in the opposite direction. Furthermore, using panel data model with fixed effects, we found that the response or sensitivity of inflation to the changes in exchange rates in Asia is higher in compare to those in the EU and North America.

Keywords: Inflation, exchange rates, panel data

Artikel Selangkapnya dalam PDF File  Klik disini

Sumber : http://www.eurojournals.com/ejefas_18_06.pdf

Determinant of Corporate Financial Distress in an Emerging Market Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Indonesian Stock Exchange 2004-2008

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

Koes Pranowo
Graduate School of Management and Business Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
Graduate Program of Management ABFI Institute of Perbanas Jakarta, Indonesia
E-mail: kpranowo@gmail.com (preferred) or koes@sism.co.id

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: achsani@yahoo.com (preferred) or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id

Adler H.Manurung
Graduate School of Management and Business Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
Graduate Program of Management ABFI Institute of Perbanas Jakarta, Indonesia
E-mail: manurung_adler@yahoo.com

Nunung Nuryartono
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: nuryartono@yahoo.com

Abstract
This study empirically examines the dynamics of corporate financial distress of public companies (non financial companies) in Indonesian (IDX) for the period of 2004- 2008. Using panel data regression, we analyze internal and external factors affecting corporate financial distress. To distinguish the status of financial condition, the process of integral corporate financial distress is classified into four steps: good, early impairment,deterioration and cash flow problem companies.

The results show that current ratio (CR), efficiency (Eff), equity (EQ) and dummy variable of the status good financial condition (D3) have positive and significant influences to Debt Service Coverage (DSC) as a proxy of financial distress. On the other hand, leverage (Lev) has a negative and significant relation with DSC. Other variables such as profit, retain earning (RE), good corporate governance (GCG) and macroeconomic factor have no significant impact on the status of corporate financial distress. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that profitable companies should not be a guarantee that the companies can survive to fulfill its liabilities. Liquidity of companies which can be a prominent point can be recognized by evaluating cash flow performance.

Keywords: Debt Service Coverage (DSC), Panel Data, Corporate Financial Distress,Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

Artikel selengkapnya dalam PDF File Klik Disini

The Dynamics of Corporate Financial Distress in Emerging Market Economy: Empirical Evidence from the Indonesian Stock Exchange 2004-2008

Tuesday, November 2nd, 2010

Koes Pranowo
Graduate School of Management and Business, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
Magister of Management Post Graduate Program, ABFII Institute of Perbanas, Indonesia
E-mail: kpranowo@gmail.com (preferred) or koes@sism.co.id

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: achsani@yahoo.com (preferred) or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id

Adler H.Manurung
Graduate School of Management and Business, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
Magister of Management Post Graduate Program, ABFII Institute of Perbanas, Indonesia
E-mail: manurung_adler@yahoo.com

Nunung Nuryartono
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: nuryartono@yahoo.com

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the dynamics of financial distress among non-financial companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period of 2004-2008. Two different events affected the performance of public companies being financial distress. In 2005, there was an oil price shock when the government cut off subsidy for local oil price. Another event in 2007-2008 is the impact of sub-prime mortgage in the USA, where US Dollar repatriation makes global financial crisis included Indonesia.

Mostly, financial burden of public companies in Indonesia are cost of money, mainly due to having bank loan and issuing corporate bond. Therefore, the analysis uses Debt Service Coverage (DSC) as a proxy financial distress. DSC becomes one of the most important indicators for commercial bank to see financial condition prior to lending as well as underwriting of bond issuance. This paper would also analyze corporate financial distress by mapping companies in to the steps of process integral financial distress in declining financial performance from good companies, early impairment, deterioration and cashflow problem. Furthermore, mapping will also been done for five different industrial sectors, i.e. agricultural business, mining, manufacture, contruction/properties and services/trade.

The results show that oil price shock and sub-prime mortgage crisis have different impacts on the financial performance of the companies listed on the IDX. The impacts seem also varies across different industrial sectors. The evidence indicated that the mining companies are the most affected companies by global financial crisis in 2008, whereas manufacturing companies are the most affected companies by oil price shock in 2005.

Keywords: Debt Service Coverage (DSC), Corporate Financial Distress, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

Artikel lengkapnya dalam format PDF Klik Disini

Testing the Feasibility of ASEAN+3 Single Currency Comparing Optimum Currency Area and Clustering Approach

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: achsani@yahoo.com (preferred) or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id
Tel: +62-251-8313813; Fax: +62-251-8318515

Titis Partisiwi
Department of Economics, Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: tiesdende@yahoo.co.id
Tel: +62-251-8626602; Fax: +62-251-8626602

Abstract

This paper analyzes the possibility of currency integration among ASEAN+3 countries, which consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, China, Japan, and South Korea. Two different methods are employed, i.e. the exchange rate variability based on OCA index and hierarchical clustering analysis.

The result showed that Singapore Dollar was the most stable currency in the region during the period of analysis. Furthermore, both methods confirm that the ASEAN+3 single currency –if it will be established– should start with Malaysia and Singapore, followed then by Japan, Thailand, South Korea and China. On the other hand, Indonesia seems to be lag behind and therefore this country should work harder to join the single currency.

Keywords: ASEAN+3, economic integration, optimum currency area, single currency.
JEL Classification Codes: E32, F02, F15, F31

Artikel selengkapnya : PDF Files

Stability of Money Demand in an Emerging Market Economy: An Error Correction and ARDL Model for Indonesia

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Noer Azam Achsani
Department of Economics and Graduate School of Management and Business
Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia
E-mail: achsani@yahoo.com (preferred) or achsani@mb.ipb.ac.id
Tel: +62-251-8313813; Fax: +62-251-8318515

Abstract
Predicting a stable money demand function is one of the key elements of monetary policy since monetary aggregates has theoretically important influences on output, interest rate and ultimate price level. By employing the vector error correction model (VECM) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, this paper investigates the M2 money demand for Indonesia in the period of 1990:1-2008:3.
The results indicate that the demand for real M2 money aggregate is cointegrated with real income and interest rate. The real income has positive relationship with real money demand, both in the long-run and short-run. On the other hand, interest rate has a negative influence on M2 in the short-run, but has no statistically significant relationship in the long-run. Furthermore, we find that the ARDL model is more appropriate in predicting stable money demand function of Indonesia in compare to VECM.

Keywords: Money demand, cointegration, ARDL model, stability test
JEL Classification Codes: E41, E44, G2

Artikel selengkapnya : PDF Files